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SHARE VALUATION USING THE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW (DCF) METHOD
AOSM (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)
5-Year Bond interest; (EXAMPLE: 23.05)
https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/turkey-5-year-bond-yield
Country risk: (EXAMPLE:7.05)
https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/turkey-cds-5-year-usd
Market risk: (EXAMPLE: 10) The expected REAL return. (10-15% suitable)
Company Risk: (EXAMPLE 1.50) Main Operating Profit / Financing Expense
The result herethe following You can find the Ratio by matching it from the Interest Coverage Ratio table.
Beta: (EXAMPLE 0.80) You can find it on the pages of the institutions you invest in or buy shares from.
Risk of Sinking: If it is a well-established and old company, it is important to enter "0". If it is a new company and you see the risk of collapse, the numbers entered here will significantly affect AOSM. (The larger the number, the greater the risk.)
DEBT RATIO: (EXAMPLE 41)
Total Short-Term and Long-Term Financial Debts / Total Resources (Liability Value)
( Company FINANCIAL STATEMENTS on İŞ YATIRIM website you can see it clearly)
EQUITY RATIO: (EXAMPLE: 59 ) 100 -DEBT RATIOis found by the formula.
CORPORATION TAX:Although the current rate is 23%, manual entry must be made due to situations such as tax advantages and deferred tax income. (0.23)
DISCOUNT RATE: (EXAMPLE: 18.79)
Let's write the AOSM result we found in SECTION 1 into this field.
FREE CASH FLOW CALCULATION TABLE:
EBITDA:We enter the EBIT expectations for the years we project.
Tax : We enter as +. (If there is tax income - must be entered)
Capital Expenditures: We enter as +. From If you say you can find it, you can get 'Fixed Capital Investments' from the Cash Flow Statement on İŞ YATIRIM website. If you have paid applications, you can collect the cash inflows and outflows arising from 'Purchase and Sale of Tangible Assets' in the Cash Flow Section.
NET BUSINESS CAPITAL CHANGE: NET BUSINESS CAPITAL After creating the fields, we write the difference with the previous year.
For example;2024:100 000 TL 2025: 120 000 TL CHANGE FOR 2025: 20 000 TL.
NET CASH FLOW AND COMPANY VALUE CALCULATION
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In chapter 3 we found for 5 yearsNET CASH FLOWS We place them in the relevant areas.
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What we found in chapter 2Discount Rates We also write in relevant areas. (Example 0.19, 0.20, 0.40 etc.)
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(IMPORTANT)For AOSM areaThe ratio we found in section 1LET'S NOT write. Since we will follow the infinite value with lower INTERESTS, 18-19 values are suitable for this calculation area. (EXAMPLE: 15)
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g(Growth rate)For the field, a rate equivalent to the country's growth rate should be taken (such as 5).
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T.Y. (TERMINAL YEAR) The company only Since it does not have a lifespan of 5 years, we need to make a calculation for the value it will create in the future.Residual Value or TERMINAL VALUEIt is called.
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When filling in the TY line, the last yearCASH FLOW AND LAST YEAR discount rate should be written.
COMPANY EBITDA: We write the company's current EBITDA figure.
FD/ EBITDA; expected or current EV/EBITDA it could be.
DISCOUNT RATE: projectedlast year discount ratelet's enter.
We found discount rates in chapter 2. (Example: 0.20, 0.40, 0.60 etc.)
Total Present Value: Found in section 4Total Present Value Let's write the number.
Company Value:It will come automatically according to the FD / EBITDA method.
Below;
TO THE CREDIT METHOD in the Company Value field in the table according toin episode 4 The COMPANY VALUE found will be written.
TO FD/ EBITDA METHOD In the table according to Company Value In Chapter 5 COMPANY VALUE will be written.
All other fields must be filled with + value.